Tuesday, February 24, 2009
... Return to Lemon Socialism.
Robert Reich has this phrase coined, Lemon socialisum. The Winners Get Capitalism, and the lemons get socialisum. Socialize the losses privatize the profits.
... I don't mean to burst anyones bubble, but there is a "Put" option on the market that our government puts on it, because you and I are supposed to be able to invest our 401k, and pension funds etc... are heavily invested.
in September, the government went against it's long standing policy of "Lemon Socialisum" and let Lehman fail. They didn't think it was going to be that bad. Check out charlie rose yesterday with Johnney Mack. They just didn't think it would be that bad.
I'd suppose that because we have this policy of "Lemon socialisum" that has been so longstanding, when the market was faced with "Real Capitalism" it freaked out... that was what all of this has been about. So... Obama came in, and reinstated the "Lemon Socialisum" and things may recover.
Is it fair, is it right, is it what we have been taught.... NO... but I think that is how it is.
Let me try and give the other half glass.
if we ran under "Real capitalisum" P/E ratio's would be much lower... and with big companies failing, bond rates would double what we see as "market rates"
So, the new mortage plan... as far as it's effectivness is a push, it's either help homeowners 50% and banks 50% or help banks 100%..... It makes us feel better to help some of the people who Pay the taxes.
I said this.... "I'm fine with all you Breaders having to have your Kids pay for the mistakes of their Grandparents.".... I mean... that is just normal... I swear to god I still pay for my grandparents mistakes, and my parents... WTF, why shouldn't your kids be the same way?
The new Agrigator bank plan..... from what I read, it's actually smart as all hell. The are going to create a fund or roughly a bond, let investors buy the crappy assets with a 'put' option. if they start underperforming it won't matter. In fact they will use the TALF, which has a built in Put with the people who make deposits to it, if the assets start to underperform, they kick them back in the face of the bank that put them there. The TALF can just be where they get the assets for the agrigator. I'm still working on figuring it out. But it means that the investors can pay "par" for the assets, roughly. and no writedowns... if they don't perform.... the loss is the bank's.
I ran a model on how to mark to market a ABS, and even fully performing, mark to market it goes to .50 on the dollar. And that is with no impaired performance.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
I'm going to try again, see If I can sort something out. It's , I didn't mention that I woke up with a headache.
I've been sick too, I've broken out in a cold sweat a few times.
I'm not sure I can come up with anything good, I'm blocking most of it at this point... Maybe if I sit down and let my mind go.... It was a stunning day today. Tomorrow it's supposed to be 52 degrees. I imagine you have caught some of this weather over on your side of the Rockies.
I've decided we need to name that Middle girl you have. I know you have forgotten her, that poor Forgotten middle child. So forgotten you even deny she exists.
I may have to look through the record, maybe she did exist and you have her locked up in your attic and now you think you can just deny she ever existed. I think she needs a name. At least for the gravestone you sick fucker, you and your Almond Cookies. And when I suggest that she needs a name, I don't think you get to name her. I get to.
All the names so far have been Banal, I don't think you would agree... I thought Sarah earlier, there was Denise. I was thinking about naming her, using one of my jazz or blues singers. If all else fails, 'Pink' will do, regardless that sounds like a good nickname.
My mind for some reason has been rolling over this old girlfriend I had at 17 or so. Shanna, she had a real fateful thing for me. I didn't realize how bad she had it for me, Or I would have taken better advantage. We spent a ton of time Christmas shopping, it was weird. I should have taken that more as a positive, a girl I could stand to christmas shop with... those are few and far between. How can you know how important that is at the age of 17.
I realized why I have been thinking of her, I purchased Pink Floyd 'Animals' on all those shopping trips, $7 at the bookstore. That was the period of time I started to love animals. I was watching WKRP in
Didn't even know anything about getting High or whatever, it was just a nice activity.
It was a year later that a friend said "You should see 'The Wall'"... and it was fucking amazing, And I realized that the entire album had a Theme. Music was more than some nice notes, or some Joker yapping about his Dog, Car, or wife being shot.... Or some catchy line like "don't worry be happy."...
I think my friend thought it was weird How much I loved pink floyd and I didn't know anything about the Wacky Tobaccky.
All my best, I will continue to fight on.
Report 18, from Interzone...
Some day, this war is going to end
Friday, February 20, 2009
... Am I my brother's keeper?
On Fridays, my emotions get fairly close to the skin.
I'm a fan of rick Santelli. But I have a problem. Most of you don't know quite what has gone on over the past few days. There is a rant, which is the basic Free Market rant, of the "Milton Freedman" Free market Economists, or as I call them the economists of Narcissism.
Freedman is an advocate of free markets, and yet he is quoted as saying "There is no such thing as a "Free Lunch". Which meant that you have to pay for things, one way or another.
Free market traders embolden by a foolhardy government that believed in strong deregulation. Allowed Bond traders to create these crazy products that have put the country in great Peril. As they Treated the Mortgage market like a Casino, and ran away to let the government deal with the problems they created. So WE PAY FOR THEIR FREE LUNCH. We created TOO FREE A MARKET, and now we pay. Unless you have 2 definitions of Free.... One can make a claim that "THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE MARKET."
As Greenspan was quoted "There was a problem with the model, We assumed people would act in the self interest of the company." When this was stupid, because People are children, not only do they act in their own self interest, they act in their short term interest.
So, after we have rescued the Banks, the auto's, insurance companies, Wallstreet, Derivatives. Now in order to try and stabilize the mortgage market and try and keep some people off of the street. There is a stabilization bill,;proposed is to help both the banks and the borrowers, by having the taxpayer help pay down the difference between what the house was worth, and what it is now worth. To be honest it makes sense, Help both sides of the equation, not just the banks. and force them to deal directly with the problem.
So, the last few days the free market traders are having a Hissy fit. They are worse than Clickish girls... The worse idea, to them than helping the banks is the idea that we could instead of Just help banks, we help both banks and citizens. This is SUPER OFFENSIVE to these people.
What really offends me most about it, is that simple idea that we need to take care of our neighbor.
I'm not a Jesus guy, or a bible guy in any way shape or form... but the overall theme of the bible is laid out in the story of cane and able:
And the Lord said unto Cain: Where is Abel, thy brother? And he said: I know not. Am I my brother's keeper?
This is the them of the entire bible.... It asks the question "AM I MY BROTHER"S KEEPER?".
So, with all that preface:
Here it is.
In the middle of all of this, there are 10 traders from the CBOT, Standing up in the middle of the floor saying "NO, I AM NOT MY BROTHER'S KEEPER."
And over time, if you ask yourself how we got here. It's because people were asked that question over the past 3 decades and they said like cane:
I know not. Am I my brother's keeper?
Over the next series of years, we will need to ask ourselves that question many times.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
For some reason I'm letting go with the expletives...
I'm trying to throw some good mojo in Sandy's direction... I figure I best do it or he comes back and starts kicking everyone's ass again.
I go out today, and I have been Craving and old staple, for weeks I've had indigestion. Of course a nice soda can take care of that. I remembered one of my old tricks, you use Club soda, Zero Calories, and you can put juice in it. It's like a reguar soda, only you can put 4 ounces of juice in it and get away with 50 calories..
Well... this post sucks...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
I saw this movie 11 years ago. It made me cry like a little girl... No, I didn't let anyone see. Nor am I telling you the movie... Cause you would probably thing I'm a little girl.... but..... No it was not the little mermaid... that was like 20 years ago.... and no, the castle does not look like a Penis.. and you are a perv for thinking that... and Yet.. What the hell do I care.
I had this post about, the loss of a friendship. The missed dinner. The ignored e-mail... Swearing "I'll get back to that person.", then finaly starting to blow that person off. not answering phone calls...... and they just fade away....
The point I was making about the movie... It's weird, after seeing it again, I realize emotionally I probably haven't grown since then, that is unfortunate.
Monday, February 16, 2009
One of the drawbacks of not being able to work on the yard, or have anything more productive to do with my afternoon. I've spent the better part of my afternoon being haunted by a different kind of life...
and it's all one of those "If only I had..." Nightmares.
Never did mind about the little things.
Presidents day. Apparently it was a day to clean ones car, and start cleaning up some of the junk around the house. Assuming ones workplace allowed you to have the day off. So out in the cold, and yet sunny sky... many a worker bee out vacuuming and washing the floor mats, throwing out the buildup of garbage. Clearing new piles of leaves. Cleaning up remaining bits of the Holday lights. Checking for weather damage from the long winter. Soon, yards will have to be Prepped. grass fertilized. Trees Trimmed... There is a long year ahead, time to get on top of things.... Buds have started forming and soon spring will have sprung...
and a new year of green will start again.
I'm not sure one could get their hopes up that this report will be about space time. That just happens to be what I'm thinking about right now. Originally, I was contemplating how we tend to Learn new things, and our awareness of new things expands with age.
I had a Mentor, or it sounds less gay if I say "somebody once said to me 'as we get older, and the more we learn, the more we realize how little we know' ". In a way what we learn isn't more, but just a broader appreciation of what we don't know... but isn't that actually knowing more...
My next thought Chaos theory, probability models, and psychological deterministic-s...
but some other time... I'm not sure you should get your hopes up for report 13.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
I was reminded today, about how Unrealistic our Media is. The illusion it puts us all under as we lead our lives. As in the 1950's everyone aspired to be Ward and June Cleaver... and It just wasn't so. The torment and strain it places some people under when they can't live up to the Ideal versions of life they come up with.
Of course the one I was reading, was the idea that some guy was caught up in a Hextuple Homicide, then moves the bodies about 50 times... Not to spoil the story.
It's a creepy notion that we all learn all these ridiculously unrealistic life lessons, and try and apply it to our lives.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
I had a good distraction going... in fact with the snow this morning, and my fit of cabin fever, I hardly noticed my usuall Friday/Saturday gremlins. And I even noticed that with the shoveling the snow and climbing the walls to get outside... and my escape to the lands of Retail Paradise as a distraction. I didn't seem to even have a chance to ruminate on them....All the way until I remembered how nice things had been... Then Like a sickness it all crawled up my legs and into my gut... felt like curling into a ball and having a good shaking fit.All and all, I seem to suffer some PTSD... Mostly from living what was a very eventful life through my early 30's... none of that today... More like a monk these days, all that is left is to relive that old life.
But I battled on through the novel and there I am 30 pages from the end 371 and I am on 350 or so. Roughly the story is over, we are just tying up loose ends.
Somehow I ended up, as a thank you somebody brought me... I kid you not, 2 liter bottle of diet coke, and like Potato chips made out of apples, and some chex mix.... I guess the idea was that "I deserve some snacks" but since I try and be healthy, the idea was to bring me healthy snacks.
I keep wondering, People think that snacks make people happy, or maybe my perception is that everybody likes to give me snacks and cookies, because I deserve them or because I'm such a miserable asshole that it would cheer me up... Only to me, they make me angry because ... now that crap that I keep so far from my door, is now in my house... I think it's more like the Junkies who don't want anyone else to not be a junky... "here is some Smack" I know you are a junky, but if you ever want some... it's right on your table.
And you can't be rude, and say "don't bring your Crack Pipe over here."... and as some kind of evil Catch 22, because I'm such an asshole I obviously need a hit off the Crack Pipe...
What is wrong with us... or me.... Why ask...
I just tuned in.
Ok.... I'm Agnostic about Lance... as everyone should be about men named lance. I can give you a positive, Either he could get caught... or he could be beaten. Like a bad poker player, he is pushing his luck.
BUT FOYD???!!!! has it been 2 years??? What the hell is going on... Son of a Bitch, it has been 2 years.... Last year was "reclaiming the tour." I guess this year will be "Doper Redux"
Pattrick dempsy is on and he is star struck.... Let me just tell you how impressed I am the "McDreamy(I have this right, he is McDreamy... from some stupid fucking doctors show... ER or Amies anatomy or something.) is star struck to see lance and Floyd..... He also said something stupid.. which was the idea that the field had expanded... I umn the TOC field has always been the strongest, and to be honest, I think it was strongest the first year.
To be honest, the media VS. isn't doing cycling a favor by doing anything but showing contempt for Floyd.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Through me the way is to the city dolent;
Through me the way is to eternal dole;
Through me the way among the people lost.
Justice incited my sublime Creator;
Created me divine Omnipotence,
The highest Wisdom and the primal Love.
Before me there were no created things,
Only eterne, and I eternal last.
All hope abandon, ye who enter in!"
Monday, February 09, 2009
I feel like I'm getting to that point where I want to crank out... "the book", you know "the book" that one book we all feel we have in us... spend way too much time devoting our lives to it... Realizing it's probably only interesting to our mother...
that is as interesting as it gets tonight... unless you want to hear about my Colon..
What a bunch of little boys and girls we are.... Like a microwave, it has to fix the problem in 3 minutes. Like a light switch, the first one we try... has to be it.
Or what..... Are we going to sit down and cry.... Are the Republicans going to take their ball home. For 3 hours I listened to them whine about how "it wasn't bi-partisan"... More interesting or important than anything was if they had had their........ scrotum Licked.
And the Democrats, who want to run around saying Nany nany billygoat.... We win....
all these assholes are the reason we are all losing....
Economics is complicated, there are more moving parts than you can count.... More variables than even the most complicated Galois representation.
And just as many opinions as there are assholes... most of which are more about the asshole with the opinion, than they are about economics.
As the Legion of the Emotionally and mentally disabled... AKA Congress, fight this out... it's going to be tough. and they all are going to do things wrong.
My "HOPE" is that they will keep working, and keep trying....
Cause in my life... to Keep on fighting.... is the only thing that works...
Sunday, February 08, 2009
I think I pulled off eating a half a pound of cheese for dinner, and the charming things it's doing to my digestive tract.... hey, you asked... or maybe you didn't.
You may be asking yourself "why is he doing reports from interzone"....
And yet what is a blog but a report from interzone... The tough part is not booring anyone with stories about pulling Shrubbery...
They say the thoughts of ones day are random... Maybe not so random but just sort of a bubbling of intellectual Leavings. As focused as I tend to be, sometimes my thoughts wander... and as I stripped old wood from my shrubs, making way for new growth... you see when you trim a tree the goal is to "shape it"... make it into something both Natural, and yet Clean and orderly. Keep the growth from being all on one side.
With a shrub you want to clear out the dead growth from years before... you want to Prepare it for the next year, Prepare it to move on...
And in all of this... My mind wandered to Old jobs, old co-workers... Irritable unchangeable ignorant fools. Lacking any awareness of their lack of either speed or quality... in their quest for those same qualities... Truth is, they are more interested in feeding their ego.
But... you know, it's all a struggle...
I don't know where these reports are going... but it's something.
The Centipedes are getting down right arrogant. Sunday night, it would be nice to ... I had a documentary on lee harvey oswald... I'm not big on conspiracy's... I see them as irrational ways to explain complicated events. And yet that a guy who loved communism... May just have a Grudge against the guy who stopped communism from getting a good foothold in north america(cuba)... the thing I still don't get is... What the hell was Jack Rubie's deal... maybe he just wanted to be a hero.
.... but did you know you can get the frames of the zapruder film It's wild to see, at your leasure the last moments of JFK's life... at your leisure.
You can see fragments shoot forward... Not sure how you can pull that off with a shot from the front...
This is a funny exchange... I imagine someone is trolling. but funny when somebody even comes up with an even crazier theory.
Saturday, February 07, 2009
A little over a gallon of coffee.... I just can't imagine why I can't sleep....
14 cup coffee maker, 16 cups to a gallon.. Probably have 4 cups of cold coffee around here, or thrown out cold.. 28 some odd cups... That is a ton of coffee....
We have that Beans and Brew place.... and several of them, I've actually been the first customer... Huge fan of a triple shot latte.... I once drank cappuccino till the back of my Knees Started to sweat and my legs shook...
There was a time when I took caffeine pills until my head was on fire, I had to lay in bed in the dark until the buzz i.n my ears died down and any other sounds Boomed and Echoed in my head.
My name is robert paulson.... and I am a caffeine addict.
No, not me... this dude has a mini-mullet.... You know, trying to provide a picture....
They are the worst on Friday, I can't even come up with a name for them... All I know is that they are the worst on friday. I was going to report that they were something new, But now that I reflect on them, it seems as though they have been here for a while.... or not so much Been here but have been ... Sucking the life force from the marrow of my bones. I don't even have a name for them, I just know they are there.
It's hard for me to even talk about how they were before, or more to the point how they are now. The difficult part is how the have to be Chased away before I can even focus on the rest of the weekend. I'm starting to wonder..... I'm reminded what one of the elders suggested, that maybe if I just sat in a dark quiet room... Let them overtake me ..
Then maybe I could come out swinging. Always best to face ones daemons....
Expect more reports.
It has become one impressive day... and for those of you who don't know... Feb is time to trim the bushes and Trees. For those who have felt locked in for the past 3 months, it's a good start on the year, and gets you outside with some cutters. a nice chair some coffee, start thinking about the Yard/Garden.
Friday, February 06, 2009
I believe, even through the shitty weather I've managed to work out every day this week. I've been doing some Flow Yoga and running. Damn... that isn't easy. That and I'm in Awful shape these days. I am getting fitter.
Hopefully I can keep it up.
What would be nice is a good report ...
Did you know that real unemployment is 13%.... That is people "discouraged" from the work force too.... over one in ten. Somebody reminded me of how most people in our country move from one industry to another. part of the concept of Capitalism is specialization of labor, and yet we have this tendency to have a huge portion of our workforce moving from one industry to another. Spending years training for a job that lasts about 5... Doesn't seem very efficient.
This doesn't get into the numerous "Sketchy" contractors we have.... companies hiring employees as 1099's who really are just employees... without health care or benefits... Companies not living up to their Moral obligation to workers.
Lets talk about Congress.... for 4 months they have known they needed to do some form of stimulus package for the country... Here it is, and they are like "Slow down" we need to do this right.... I guess" right" is to give them 4 years.... Give them that time and they will still build a Monkey fuck of a program.... and btw they will fuck it up so bad that they then will need to then do another package down the line.... and of course they will pass this and go "We are done right!" then down the line they will have to do the other million things they need to do for the economy and will be all.... "Slow down... we are rushing this." they remind me of the kid who does his term paper on the last night.... You know you knew this was due for 3 months... here it is.. and you are cramming for it..
Well Hopefully better reports in the future.
Monday, February 02, 2009
um... I'm sitting here, hoping to flush some ... JuJu....
My, seasonal bla's have progressed... They seem like they are boiling over... I guess that is a sign that I'm getting over them.
Fuck!... I wanted to talk about it... I've reached out to most of my "support group", and they aren't helping... so, what is an anonymous blog for...
and yet here I sit stifled for what to write. I've spent most of the past week trying to distract myself And... Well the way I live it's more likely that I just stew in my own juice, than manage something progressive.
Well that is all I have...
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Sandy, one of my personal hero's... I imagine he would be surprised to hear it. Well was just blogging about his Sunday, as compared to mine.... As I Literally spent my entire morning watch Federer fight it out with Nadal.... Which was beautiful BTW... Much better than the woman's match. One can only hope that this battle will go on for another 3-5 years.
I also just started my second pot of coffee, wandered around the yard thinking about my garden, and the coming year. Thinking about how I will while away the rest of my day and sandy then goes through the Rough and tumble nature of his Heroic efforts to become a doctor....
It's all relative... (lesson for me, not sandy.)
For those of you who..... are not following the market... Which to be honest, most shouldn't... I spent the last weeks doing some Fairly remarkable Knife catching... For those you know what I'm talking about, I had some Amazing Day trades, followed by some Crazy follow through into a nice bounce in the market..... And yet... I got the Bad Mojo on the bounce, and to my absolute "Nut Grabbing pain" Puked them up(stocks I'm talking about).... It's weird when you look at the market internals, and can't quite understand why you feel like "Something isn't right", Then you have to let them go.
So then I've spent the past week contemplating if my "Mojo" could be off, or if this is just part of the Market Sentiment cycle...
Furthermore.... I guess I'm saying there seems to be "more bad" in the market for the short term. Let me just add in some Good old fashion Seasonal depression, and cabin fever... You have a recipe for some feeling bad for myself, and usual.... "Natural shocks that flesh is Heir to.".
So, I've been sitting on my hands for the past week, doing way too much reflection on everything....
But on the other hand, we could be putting in some form of bottom, that has a chance of holding for more than 2 months... Not sure we can get our hopes up for more than three.
Just to through out some.... Thoughts on the economy. Many out there blame all of this on....."Whatever"... Bush, Greenspan, Wallstreet, Citigroup, Fiat money...... Bla Bla Bla... Y'all know me(sort of). We are the ones responsible.
I can go on for hours about the state of Socio-Economics. Regardless of "right wing vs. Left wing" Economics/Politics.... I can take issue with One thing on one side, or one thing on the other side. Good things about having Credit, bad things..... Bla bla bla..
You have to think that ... in a Macro macro way, there is just something fundamentally wrong with our society.... and by our, I don't just mean the USA. We have become a global society. There is just this Huge problem with us, Where People who work hard everyday, can't get ahead. And where .... ScumSucking... Soda-suckers. Are constantly at it, doing everything they can, to work less, and get more...... You have to think that at one point "Natural Selection" will just get the better of us.
I was working for a company, a while back, and they offered me a job to run this department. They said, "We have our current guy and we want to promote him, Then you can run his department under him.".... I was like... Ok, So There is the "Owner". Then there is the "Head of the Section", Then we have this guy who is going to be the head of the Department, I'm going to be Head of individual Projects, Then there are the 2 guys that do the work..... So you have 2 guys doing work, and 4 people in charge of them.... Of course since I actually work, that is 3 guys doing work, supporting 3 guys who don't work, and are just "in charge". I've always assumed a 5 to 1 management ratio. one guy manages 5 departments, each of those "Department heads" manages 5 projects, those 5 projects have one boss and 5 employees....
So we have one extra position, and about 25 too few people.... This will go far... Me- I'd say fire 2 managers, or get them doing "work"...
Furthermore, We all understand the Management structure which more clearly follows the "Dilbert Principle", than the "Peter Principle" Where, the More productive an employee is, the more likely there is somebody riding his coat tales or taking credit for his work. As Political structures tend to breed Politicians, and not Productivity
I've worked in places where 20K is spend arguing about a 3K dollar problem.
These are unsustainable models for an economy. And need to be flushed out... Companies that have 50 bosses for 3 employees... need to go belly up.... but it would be better if this happened slowly, so the economy can make needed adjustments, and not Seize up.
No tax cuts, Spending programs or Bailouts or "paradox of thrift" or Etc or Austrian economics, is going to save us..... I guess like all things... It's up to 'us'... and no amount of Assinine "Harry Ried, Larry Kudlow, Nancy Pilosi, Mitch Mcconal, Richard Shelby" Asshatery is ....
To tie the points together... Congress needs to "Be Productive".. and not their usual "finger pointing" "name calling" "pass the buck"..... None of that will work, they have to all get together and come up with Solutions. But again, we run into the problem with our society... It's easier to Nay-Say, and Tear down... Others, than it is to .. Do the Work.
I have this comment about when people spend a ton of time "Fighting about things"... That it's obvious they don't have enough work to do, if they have enough time to fight about it.
and in my opinion, that is the problem, and until we understand that we are sad, pathetic, Ridiculous, People.... With their heads so far up our own asses.... Will we be able to actually solve problems... As opposed to "Argue about them".... And that "we all need to get to work"