I've had a ridiculous week.
Oh... there was some bottom calling in the market..... and some asshole is saying it on tv.
Unfortunately, and yes this person is an asshole.... Assuming a Zero Growth (and non financials, non Oil are growing earnings at 2+%) Fair value is 10600... So if the market gets close to that... People who can do math get excited about the stock market. There is also this thing called the Maximum Pessimism in the market... And when The market starts talking about the great depression, and every bank in the country going bankrupt..... Seems like we hit that one.... and I'm not sure I have seen any breadlines or hobo's, just a lot of fat people eating potatochips. The market could go lower... but it is by no means "Overvalued"...
if you have a 401K, at the 11k level.... Increase your contributions.... Buying the stock market when it is down 25+%, is ... a rare opportunity.... But we could go lower. The return on those contributions.... Well is much higher than they will be if you decide to contribute "Post recovery"
And Yes, we will experience a long period of stagnant growth with, high inflation. Even Kudlow, says we are in a "contraction"/recession.
One other tip.... There is this thing called the non farm payroll, when the 3 month moving average turns negative... or it hits sub 40K for a couple months... Get OUT!
Let me give you another indicator. When I can find a 20 year old, who is willing to do hard labor. The economy is in trouble. But while they are to fucked off to get off their cell phones to "Work"... I'm thinking things are not that bad.
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Yes, a rant will count. I want to say other things, but I'm still not fully recovered from my long run, and I fear typing something that will make absolutely no sense (like this line I just managed). After lunch, I'll think through your rant and try to muster an intelligent response.
I keep hoping to come up with something better for my poetry friday.
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